Winning Decisions: Getting It Right the First Time by J. Edward Russo & Paul J.H. Schoemaker

Author:J. Edward Russo & Paul J.H. Schoemaker
Language: eng
Format: mobi
Tags: Fiction
ISBN: 9780385504942
Publisher: The Crown Publishing Group
Published: 2002-04-22T14:00:00+00:00

Skiwear manufacturer Sport Obermeyer found that the more vocal members of their buying committee skewed the consensus forecast on trends for the winter clothing market, frequently causing forecasts to be significantly off target. So the company’s executives, in collaboration with several researchers, conducted an experiment. Previously, the buying committee had provided a single consensus forecast for each style and color, arrived at after extensive discussion. In the experiment, they asked each member of the forecasting committee to forecast independently, rather than through a group process. The result? The average of the independent forecasts was usually more accuratethan the forecasts generated through a consensus process. As a result, the company now uses the average of individual forecasts (modified by some basic statistical techniques), rather than the buyers’ consensus forecast, to predict demand.23

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